Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Odra Wodzislaw vs Chrobry Głogów II — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Odra Wodzislaw
Odra Wodzislaw
FT
5 – 2
Chrobry Głogów II
Chrobry Głogów II
4/8/2023III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 23Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Odra Wodzislaw38%
×Draw24%
Chrobry Głogów II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odra Wodzislaw
1.57
Chrobry Głogów II
1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Odra Wodzislaw
1.68
Chrobry Głogów II
1.00

allows per match

Odra Wodzislaw
2.18
Chrobry Głogów II
1.47

finishing

Odra Wodzislaw+0.00on par
Chrobry Głogów II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Wodzislaw ↓

Chrobry Głogów II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Odra Wodzislaw or draw
61%
Odra Wodzislaw or Chrobry Głogów II
76%
Draw or Chrobry Głogów II
62%

Winning margin

Odra Wodzislaw wins by 2+
18%
Chrobry Głogów II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Odra Wodzislaw 1+ goals
79%
Odra Wodzislaw 2+ goals
46%
Odra Wodzislaw 3+ goals
21%
Chrobry Głogów II 1+ goals
80%
Chrobry Głogów II 2+ goals
47%
Chrobry Głogów II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Odra Wodzislaw (draw refunded)
49%
Chrobry Głogów II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Wodzislaw at home — creates 1.68, concedes 2.18 · 34 matches

Chrobry Głogów II away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Wodzislaw attack 1.68 + Chrobry Głogów II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.57

Chrobry Głogów II attack 1.00 + Odra Wodzislaw defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Odra Wodzislaw scores more
38%
level
24%
Chrobry Głogów II scores more
39%

Chrobry Głogów II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Chrobry Głogów II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Odra Wodzislaw 5–2 Chrobry Głogów II

Odra Wodzislaw beat Chrobry Głogów II 5-2 in III Liga - Group 3 on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Wodzisław Śląski.