Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Odra Petřkovice vs Vyškov — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Odra Petřkovice
Odra Petřkovice
CANC
15:00
Vyškov
Vyškov
5/16/20213. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 28Stadion Petřkovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Odra Petřkovice44%
×Draw26%
Vyškov30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odra Petřkovice
1.48
Vyškov
1.19

Odra Petřkovice creates 24% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 16 away

creates per match

Odra Petřkovice
1.65
Vyškov
1.25

allows per match

Odra Petřkovice
1.12
Vyškov
1.31

finishing

Odra Petřkovice+0.00on par
Vyškov+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Petřkovice ↓

Vyškov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Odra Petřkovice or draw
70%
Odra Petřkovice or Vyškov
74%
Draw or Vyškov
56%

Winning margin

Odra Petřkovice wins by 2+
21%
Vyškov wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Odra Petřkovice 1+ goals
77%
Odra Petřkovice 2+ goals
43%
Odra Petřkovice 3+ goals
19%
Vyškov 1+ goals
70%
Vyškov 2+ goals
33%
Vyškov 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Odra Petřkovice (draw refunded)
59%
Vyškov (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Petřkovice at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Vyškov away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Petřkovice attack 1.65 + Vyškov defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.48

Vyškov attack 1.25 + Odra Petřkovice defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Odra Petřkovice scores more
44%
level
26%
Vyškov scores more
30%

Odra Petřkovice at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Odra Petřkovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Odra Petřkovice host Vyškov

May 16, 2021: Odra Petřkovice take on Vyškov in 3. liga - MSFL. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Odra Petřkovice host Vyškov at Stadion Petřkovice.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.