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Odra Petřkovice vs Slovan Rosice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Odra Petřkovice
Odra Petřkovice
FT
1 – 0
Slovan Rosice
Slovan Rosice
8/3/20193. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 1Stadion Petřkovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Odra Petřkovice43%
×Draw26%
Slovan Rosice31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odra Petřkovice
1.44
Slovan Rosice
1.20

Odra Petřkovice creates 20% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 66 away

creates per match

Odra Petřkovice
1.65
Slovan Rosice
1.27

allows per match

Odra Petřkovice
1.12
Slovan Rosice
1.24

finishing

Odra Petřkovice+0.00on par
Slovan Rosice+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Petřkovice ↓

Slovan Rosice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Odra Petřkovice or draw
69%
Odra Petřkovice or Slovan Rosice
74%
Draw or Slovan Rosice
57%

Winning margin

Odra Petřkovice wins by 2+
20%
Slovan Rosice wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Odra Petřkovice 1+ goals
76%
Odra Petřkovice 2+ goals
42%
Odra Petřkovice 3+ goals
18%
Slovan Rosice 1+ goals
70%
Slovan Rosice 2+ goals
34%
Slovan Rosice 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Odra Petřkovice (draw refunded)
58%
Slovan Rosice (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Petřkovice at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Slovan Rosice away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.24 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Petřkovice attack 1.65 + Slovan Rosice defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.44

Slovan Rosice attack 1.27 + Odra Petřkovice defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Odra Petřkovice scores more
43%
level
26%
Slovan Rosice scores more
31%

Odra Petřkovice at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Odra Petřkovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Odra Petřkovice 1–0 Slovan Rosice

Odra Petřkovice beat Slovan Rosice 1-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on August 3, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Petřkovice in Ostrava.