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Odra Petřkovice vs Baník Ostrava II — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Odra Petřkovice
Odra Petřkovice
FT
0 – 1
Baník Ostrava II
Baník Ostrava II
10/19/20193. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 12Stadion Petřkovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Odra Petřkovice34%
×Draw24%
Baník Ostrava II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odra Petřkovice
1.40
Baník Ostrava II
1.60

Baník Ostrava II creates 14% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 65 away

creates per match

Odra Petřkovice
1.65
Baník Ostrava II
2.08

allows per match

Odra Petřkovice
1.12
Baník Ostrava II
1.14

finishing

Odra Petřkovice+0.00on par
Baník Ostrava II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Petřkovice ↓

Baník Ostrava II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Odra Petřkovice or draw
58%
Odra Petřkovice or Baník Ostrava II
76%
Draw or Baník Ostrava II
66%

Winning margin

Odra Petřkovice wins by 2+
15%
Baník Ostrava II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Odra Petřkovice 1+ goals
75%
Odra Petřkovice 2+ goals
41%
Odra Petřkovice 3+ goals
17%
Baník Ostrava II 1+ goals
80%
Baník Ostrava II 2+ goals
47%
Baník Ostrava II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Odra Petřkovice (draw refunded)
44%
Baník Ostrava II (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Petřkovice at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Baník Ostrava II away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.14 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Petřkovice attack 1.65 + Baník Ostrava II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.40

Baník Ostrava II attack 2.08 + Odra Petřkovice defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Odra Petřkovice scores more
34%
level
24%
Baník Ostrava II scores more
42%

Baník Ostrava II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Baník Ostrava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Odra Petřkovice 0–1 Baník Ostrava II

Baník Ostrava II beat Odra Petřkovice 1-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on October 19, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Petřkovice in Ostrava.