Odra Opole 0–2 Znicz Pruszków: Result & Stats

Odra Opole

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Znicz Pruszków

8/24/2025

I Liga · Round 7Itaka Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Odra Opole42%

×Draw27%

Znicz Pruszków31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Odra OpoleExpected goals in this matchZnicz Pruszków

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.10

Odra Opole

1.32

Znicz Pruszków

1.10

Odra Opole creates 20% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 51 away

1.21

creates per match

1.10

1.11

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Odra Opole

1.21

Znicz Pruszków

1.10

allows per match

Odra Opole

1.11

Znicz Pruszków

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Odra Opole+0.00on par

Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Opole ↓

Znicz Pruszków →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Odra Opole or draw

69%

Odra Opole or Znicz Pruszków

73%

Draw or Znicz Pruszków

58%

Winning margin

Odra Opole wins by 2+

19%

Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Odra Opole 1+ goals

73%

Odra Opole 2+ goals

38%

Odra Opole 3+ goals

15%

Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals

67%

Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals

30%

Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Odra Opole (draw refunded)

57%

Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Opole at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.11 · 136 matches

Znicz Pruszków away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.43 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Opole attack 1.21 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.32

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.10 + Odra Opole defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Odra Opole scores more

42%

level

27%

Znicz Pruszków scores more

31%

Odra Opole at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Odra Opole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff