Odra Opole 2–2 Stomil Olsztyn: Result & Stats

Odra Opole

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Stomil Olsztyn

4/13/2019

I Liga · Round 28Stadion Miejski (Opole)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Odra Opole43%

×Draw28%

Stomil Olsztyn29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Odra OpoleExpected goals in this matchStomil Olsztyn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.00

Odra Opole

1.28

Stomil Olsztyn

1.00

Odra Opole creates 28% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 68 away

1.21

creates per match

0.88

1.11

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Odra Opole

1.21

Stomil Olsztyn

0.88

allows per match

Odra Opole

1.11

Stomil Olsztyn

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Odra Opole+0.00on par

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Opole ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Odra Opole or draw

71%

Odra Opole or Stomil Olsztyn

72%

Draw or Stomil Olsztyn

57%

Winning margin

Odra Opole wins by 2+

19%

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Odra Opole 1+ goals

72%

Odra Opole 2+ goals

37%

Odra Opole 3+ goals

14%

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals

63%

Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals

26%

Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Odra Opole (draw refunded)

60%

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Opole at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.11 · 136 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.35 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Opole attack 1.21 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.28

Stomil Olsztyn attack 0.88 + Odra Opole defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Odra Opole scores more

43%

level

28%

Stomil Olsztyn scores more

29%

Odra Opole at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Odra Opole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff