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Odra Opole vs Stal Rzeszów — I Liga 2018

Odra Opole
Odra Opole
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Stal Rzeszów
Stal Rzeszów
12/10/2023I LigaI Liga · Round 18Stadion GKS-u

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Odra Opole45%
×Draw26%
Stal Rzeszów29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odra Opole
1.48
Stal Rzeszów
1.15

Odra Opole creates 29% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 69 away

creates per match

Odra Opole
1.21
Stal Rzeszów
1.19

allows per match

Odra Opole
1.11
Stal Rzeszów
1.74

finishing

Odra Opole+0.00on par
Stal Rzeszów+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Opole ↓

Stal Rzeszów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Odra Opole or draw
71%
Odra Opole or Stal Rzeszów
74%
Draw or Stal Rzeszów
55%

Winning margin

Odra Opole wins by 2+
22%
Stal Rzeszów wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Odra Opole 1+ goals
77%
Odra Opole 2+ goals
43%
Odra Opole 3+ goals
19%
Stal Rzeszów 1+ goals
68%
Stal Rzeszów 2+ goals
32%
Stal Rzeszów 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Odra Opole (draw refunded)
60%
Stal Rzeszów (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Opole at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.11 · 136 matches

Stal Rzeszów away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.74 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Opole attack 1.21 + Stal Rzeszów defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.48

Stal Rzeszów attack 1.19 + Odra Opole defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Odra Opole scores more
45%
level
26%
Stal Rzeszów scores more
29%

Odra Opole at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Odra Opole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Odra Opole vs Stal Rzeszów

Odra Opole and Stal Rzeszów drew 1-1 in I Liga on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion GKS-u in Bełchatów.