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Odra Opole vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Odra Opole
Odra Opole
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
R. Niziolek 90'
M. Mansfeld 71'
K. Kasprzak 55' (pen)
1/18/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Centrum Sportu Opole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Odra Opole46%
×Draw26%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odra Opole
1.48
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
1.08

Odra Opole creates 37% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 12 away

creates per match

Odra Opole
1.53
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
0.83

allows per match

Odra Opole
1.33
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
1.42

finishing

Odra Opole+0.00on par
Rekord Bielsko-Biała+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Opole ↓

Rekord Bielsko-Biała →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Odra Opole or draw
72%
Odra Opole or Rekord Bielsko-Biała
74%
Draw or Rekord Bielsko-Biała
54%

Winning margin

Odra Opole wins by 2+
23%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Odra Opole 1+ goals
77%
Odra Opole 2+ goals
43%
Odra Opole 3+ goals
19%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1+ goals
66%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2+ goals
29%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Odra Opole (draw refunded)
63%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Opole at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biała away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Opole attack 1.53 + Rekord Bielsko-Biała defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.48

Rekord Bielsko-Biała attack 0.83 + Odra Opole defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Odra Opole scores more
46%
level
26%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała scores more
28%

Odra Opole at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Odra Opole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'
K. KasprzakPenalty
71'
M. Mansfeld
90'
R. Niziolek
Odra
Rekord
J. Skrobacz
Manager: J. Skrobacz
D. Rucki
Manager: D. Rucki

Friendlies Clubs: Odra Opole 2–1 Rekord Bielsko-Biała

Odra Opole beat Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 18, 2025.

Goals: K. Kasprzak (55' pen), M. Mansfeld (71'), R. Niziolek (90').

The match was played at Centrum Sportu Opole in Opole.