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Odra Opole vs Polonia Warszawa — I Liga 2018

Odra Opole
Odra Opole
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Polonia Warszawa
Polonia Warszawa
11/26/2023I LigaI Liga · Round 16Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Odra Opole36%
×Draw27%
Polonia Warszawa37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odra Opole
1.25
Polonia Warszawa
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 136 home / 53 away

creates per match

Odra Opole
1.21
Polonia Warszawa
1.45

allows per match

Odra Opole
1.11
Polonia Warszawa
1.30

finishing

Odra Opole+0.00on par
Polonia Warszawa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Opole ↓

Polonia Warszawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Odra Opole or draw
63%
Odra Opole or Polonia Warszawa
73%
Draw or Polonia Warszawa
64%

Winning margin

Odra Opole wins by 2+
16%
Polonia Warszawa wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Odra Opole 1+ goals
71%
Odra Opole 2+ goals
36%
Odra Opole 3+ goals
13%
Polonia Warszawa 1+ goals
72%
Polonia Warszawa 2+ goals
37%
Polonia Warszawa 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Odra Opole (draw refunded)
49%
Polonia Warszawa (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Opole at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.11 · 136 matches

Polonia Warszawa away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.30 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Opole attack 1.21 + Polonia Warszawa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.25

Polonia Warszawa attack 1.45 + Odra Opole defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Odra Opole scores more
36%
level
27%
Polonia Warszawa scores more
37%

Polonia Warszawa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Polonia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Odra Opole vs Polonia Warszawa

Odra Opole beat Polonia Warszawa 3-0 in I Liga on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Opole.