Odra Opole 0–2 Miedz Legnica: Result & Stats

Odra Opole

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Miedz Legnica

D. Michalik 80'

B. Kwiecień 7'

10/26/2024

I Liga · Round 14Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Odra Opole36%

×Draw28%

Miedz Legnica35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Odra OpoleExpected goals in this matchMiedz Legnica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.16

Odra Opole

1.18

Miedz Legnica

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 134 home / 103 away

1.19

creates per match

1.22

1.10

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Odra Opole

1.19

Miedz Legnica

1.22

allows per match

Odra Opole

1.10

Miedz Legnica

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Odra Opole+0.00on par

Miedz Legnica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Opole ↓

Miedz Legnica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Odra Opole or draw

65%

Odra Opole or Miedz Legnica

72%

Draw or Miedz Legnica

64%

Winning margin

Odra Opole wins by 2+

15%

Miedz Legnica wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Odra Opole 1+ goals

69%

Odra Opole 2+ goals

33%

Odra Opole 3+ goals

12%

Miedz Legnica 1+ goals

69%

Miedz Legnica 2+ goals

32%

Miedz Legnica 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Odra Opole (draw refunded)

51%

Miedz Legnica (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Opole at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.10 · 134 matches

Miedz Legnica away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.17 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Opole attack 1.19 + Miedz Legnica defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.18

Miedz Legnica attack 1.22 + Odra Opole defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Odra Opole scores more

36%

level

28%

Miedz Legnica scores more

35%

Odra Opole at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Odra Opole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

B. Kwiecień

44'

J. Letniowski

58'

D. Michalik← J. Podgórski

58'

K. Drygas← J. Letniowski

60'

A. Purzycki

65'

S. Szklinski

66'

M. Banaszewski← D. Dudziński

71'

B. Bida← M. Mansfeld

71'

K. Drzazga← B. Mioč

80'

D. Wolny← E. Muratović

80'

R. Niziołek← A. Purzycki

80'

D. Michalik

84'

T. Prikryl

85'

A. Drina← K. Antonik

88'

K. Nowak← D. Czapliński

88'

O. Zawada← J. Bartosz

Odra

Miedz

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Skrobacz

66'▲M. Banaszewski←▼D. Dudziński

80'▲D. Wolny←▼E. Muratović

80'▲R. Niziołek←▼A. Purzycki

88'▲K. Nowak←▼D. Czapliński

88'▲O. Zawada←▼J. Bartosz

Odra Opole substitutes

BanaszewskiWolnyNiziołekNowakZawadaWójcikDomínguezOsipiakŻemło

Manager: I. Mamrot

58'▲D. Michalik←▼J. Podgórski

58'▲K. Drygas←▼J. Letniowski

71'▲B. Bida←▼M. Mansfeld

71'▲K. Drzazga←▼B. Mioč

85'▲A. Drina←▼K. Antonik

Miedz Legnica substitutes

MichalikDrygasBidaDrzazgaDrinaTrontAbramowiczGrudzińskiKaczmar

I Liga: Odra Opole 0–2 Miedz Legnica

Miedz Legnica beat Odra Opole 2-0 in I Liga on October 26, 2024.

Goals: B. Kwiecień (7'), D. Michalik (80').

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Opole.

Odra Opole vs Miedz Legnica — I Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

I Liga: Odra Opole 0–2 Miedz Legnica