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Odra Opole U19 vs Widzew Łódź U19 — Central Youth League 2020

Odra Opole U19
Odra Opole U19
FT
1 – 0
Widzew Łódź U19
Widzew Łódź U19
10/21/2023Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Odra Opole U1945%
×Draw21%
Widzew Łódź U1934%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odra Opole U19
2.13
Widzew Łódź U19
1.83

Odra Opole U19 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Odra Opole U19
1.38
Widzew Łódź U19
1.27

allows per match

Odra Opole U19
2.40
Widzew Łódź U19
2.87

finishing

Odra Opole U19+0.00on par
Widzew Łódź U19+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Opole U19 ↓

Widzew Łódź U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Odra Opole U19 or draw
66%
Odra Opole U19 or Widzew Łódź U19
79%
Draw or Widzew Łódź U19
55%

Winning margin

Odra Opole U19 wins by 2+
26%
Widzew Łódź U19 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Odra Opole U19 1+ goals
88%
Odra Opole U19 2+ goals
63%
Odra Opole U19 3+ goals
35%
Widzew Łódź U19 1+ goals
84%
Widzew Łódź U19 2+ goals
54%
Widzew Łódź U19 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Odra Opole U19 (draw refunded)
57%
Widzew Łódź U19 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Opole U19 at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.40 · 45 matches

Widzew Łódź U19 away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Opole U19 attack 1.38 + Widzew Łódź U19 defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.13

Widzew Łódź U19 attack 1.27 + Odra Opole U19 defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Odra Opole U19 scores more
45%
level
21%
Widzew Łódź U19 scores more
34%

Odra Opole U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Odra Opole U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Odra Opole U19 vs Widzew Łódź U19

Odra Opole U19 beat Widzew Łódź U19 1-0 in Central Youth League on October 21, 2023.