Odra Opole U19 1–0 Raków Częstochowa U19

Odra Opole U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Raków Częstochowa U19

5/25/2024

Central Youth League · Round 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Odra Opole U1931%

×Draw22%

Raków Częstochowa U1948%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Odra Opole U19Expected goals in this matchRaków Częstochowa U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

2.02

Odra Opole U19

1.60

Raków Częstochowa U19

2.02

Raków Częstochowa U19 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 22 away

1.38

creates per match

1.64

2.40

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Odra Opole U19

1.38

Raków Częstochowa U19

1.64

allows per match

Odra Opole U19

2.40

Raków Częstochowa U19

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Odra Opole U19+0.00on par

Raków Częstochowa U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Opole U19 ↓

Raków Częstochowa U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Odra Opole U19 or draw

52%

Odra Opole U19 or Raków Częstochowa U19

78%

Draw or Raków Częstochowa U19

69%

Winning margin

Odra Opole U19 wins by 2+

15%

Raków Częstochowa U19 wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Odra Opole U19 1+ goals

80%

Odra Opole U19 2+ goals

47%

Odra Opole U19 3+ goals

22%

Raków Częstochowa U19 1+ goals

87%

Raków Częstochowa U19 2+ goals

60%

Raków Częstochowa U19 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Odra Opole U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Raków Częstochowa U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Opole U19 at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.40 · 45 matches

Raków Częstochowa U19 away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Opole U19 attack 1.38 + Raków Częstochowa U19 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.60

Raków Częstochowa U19 attack 1.64 + Odra Opole U19 defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Odra Opole U19 scores more

31%

level

22%

Raków Częstochowa U19 scores more

48%

Raków Częstochowa U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff