Odra Bytom Odrzański 2–1 Raków Częstochowa II

Odra Bytom Odrzański

FT

2 – 1

Raków Częstochowa II

9/23/2023

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 9Stadion miejski w Bytomiu Odrzańskim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Odra Bytom Odrzański39%

×Draw24%

Raków Częstochowa II37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Odra Bytom OdrzańskiExpected goals in this matchRaków Częstochowa II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.50

Odra Bytom Odrzański

1.53

Raków Częstochowa II

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

1.35

creates per match

1.53

1.47

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Odra Bytom Odrzański

1.35

Raków Częstochowa II

1.53

allows per match

Odra Bytom Odrzański

1.47

Raków Częstochowa II

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Odra Bytom Odrzański+0.00on par

Raków Częstochowa II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Bytom Odrzański ↓

Raków Częstochowa II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Odra Bytom Odrzański or draw

63%

Odra Bytom Odrzański or Raków Częstochowa II

76%

Draw or Raków Częstochowa II

61%

Winning margin

Odra Bytom Odrzański wins by 2+

19%

Raków Częstochowa II wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Odra Bytom Odrzański 1+ goals

78%

Odra Bytom Odrzański 2+ goals

45%

Odra Bytom Odrzański 3+ goals

20%

Raków Częstochowa II 1+ goals

78%

Raków Częstochowa II 2+ goals

44%

Raków Częstochowa II 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Odra Bytom Odrzański (draw refunded)

51%

Raków Częstochowa II (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Bytom Odrzański at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

Raków Częstochowa II away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.71 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Bytom Odrzański attack 1.35 + Raków Częstochowa II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.53

Raków Częstochowa II attack 1.53 + Odra Bytom Odrzański defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Odra Bytom Odrzański scores more

39%

level

24%

Raków Częstochowa II scores more

37%

Odra Bytom Odrzański at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Odra Bytom Odrzański will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff