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Odra Bytom Odrzański vs Górnik Zabrze II — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Odra Bytom Odrzański
Odra Bytom Odrzański
FT
0 – 1
Górnik Zabrze II
Górnik Zabrze II
3/16/2024III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 21Stadion miejski w Bytomiu Odrzańskim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Odra Bytom Odrzański37%
×Draw24%
Górnik Zabrze II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odra Bytom Odrzański
1.55
Górnik Zabrze II
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 103 away

creates per match

Odra Bytom Odrzański
1.35
Górnik Zabrze II
1.70

allows per match

Odra Bytom Odrzański
1.47
Górnik Zabrze II
1.75

finishing

Odra Bytom Odrzański+0.00on par
Górnik Zabrze II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Bytom Odrzański ↓

Górnik Zabrze II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Odra Bytom Odrzański or draw
61%
Odra Bytom Odrzański or Górnik Zabrze II
76%
Draw or Górnik Zabrze II
63%

Winning margin

Odra Bytom Odrzański wins by 2+
18%
Górnik Zabrze II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Odra Bytom Odrzański 1+ goals
79%
Odra Bytom Odrzański 2+ goals
46%
Odra Bytom Odrzański 3+ goals
20%
Górnik Zabrze II 1+ goals
79%
Górnik Zabrze II 2+ goals
47%
Górnik Zabrze II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Odra Bytom Odrzański (draw refunded)
49%
Górnik Zabrze II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Bytom Odrzański at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

Górnik Zabrze II away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.75 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Bytom Odrzański attack 1.35 + Górnik Zabrze II defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.55

Górnik Zabrze II attack 1.70 + Odra Bytom Odrzański defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Odra Bytom Odrzański scores more
37%
level
24%
Górnik Zabrze II scores more
39%

Górnik Zabrze II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Górnik Zabrze II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Odra Bytom Odrzański 0–1 Górnik Zabrze II

Górnik Zabrze II beat Odra Bytom Odrzański 1-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion miejski w Bytomiu Odrzańskim in Bytom Odrzański.