Odishi 1919 6–0 Merani Tbilisi II: Result & Stats

Odishi 1919

6 – 0

Merani Tbilisi II

5/13/2024

David Kipiani Cup · 1st RoundTsentraluri Stadioni Ganmukhuri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Odishi 191968%

×Draw15%

Merani Tbilisi II17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Odishi 1919Expected goals in this matchMerani Tbilisi II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.20

1.60

Odishi 1919

3.20

Merani Tbilisi II

1.60

Odishi 1919 creates 100% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

1.40

creates per match

1.00

2.20

allows per match

5.00

creates per match

Odishi 1919

1.40

Merani Tbilisi II

1.00

allows per match

Odishi 1919

2.20

Merani Tbilisi II

5.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Odishi 1919+0.00on par

Merani Tbilisi II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odishi 1919 ↓

Merani Tbilisi II →

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1–03%

1–14%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–04%

4–16%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

Odishi 1919 or draw

83%

Odishi 1919 or Merani Tbilisi II

85%

Draw or Merani Tbilisi II

32%

Winning margin

Odishi 1919 wins by 2+

49%

Merani Tbilisi II wins by 2+

Team goals

Odishi 1919 1+ goals

96%

Odishi 1919 2+ goals

82%

Odishi 1919 3+ goals

60%

Merani Tbilisi II 1+ goals

80%

Merani Tbilisi II 2+ goals

47%

Merani Tbilisi II 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Odishi 1919 (draw refunded)

80%

Merani Tbilisi II (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Odishi 1919 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Merani Tbilisi II away — creates 1.00, concedes 5.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Odishi 1919 attack 1.40 + Merani Tbilisi II defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.20

Merani Tbilisi II attack 1.00 + Odishi 1919 defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 68%?"

Odishi 1919 scores more

68%

level

15%

Merani Tbilisi II scores more

17%

Odishi 1919 at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Odishi 1919 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff