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Odisha vs Maziya — AFC Cup 2018

Odisha
Odisha
FT
6 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Maziya
Maziya
10/24/2023AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 3Kalinga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Odisha59%
×Draw21%
Maziya20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odisha
2.09
Maziya
1.13

Odisha creates 85% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Odisha
1.75
Maziya
1.00

allows per match

Odisha
1.25
Maziya
2.43

finishing

Odisha+0.00on par
Maziya+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odisha ↓

Maziya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Odisha or draw
80%
Odisha or Maziya
79%
Draw or Maziya
41%

Winning margin

Odisha wins by 2+
36%
Maziya wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Odisha 1+ goals
88%
Odisha 2+ goals
62%
Odisha 3+ goals
34%
Maziya 1+ goals
68%
Maziya 2+ goals
31%
Maziya 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Odisha (draw refunded)
75%
Maziya (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odisha at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Maziya away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odisha attack 1.75 + Maziya defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.09

Maziya attack 1.00 + Odisha defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Odisha scores more
59%
level
21%
Maziya scores more
20%

Odisha at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Odisha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Odisha 6 – 1 Maziya

Odisha beat Maziya 6-1 in AFC Cup on October 24, 2023.

The match was played at Kalinga Stadium in Bhubaneswar.