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Odisha vs Chennaiyin — Indian Super League 2019

Odisha
Odisha
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Chennaiyin
Chennaiyin
9/23/2023Indian Super LeagueIndian Super League · Round 1Kalinga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Odisha45%
×Draw24%
Chennaiyin32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odisha
1.71
Chennaiyin
1.41

Odisha creates 21% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 72 away

creates per match

Odisha
1.75
Chennaiyin
1.26

allows per match

Odisha
1.56
Chennaiyin
1.68

finishing

Odisha+0.00on par
Chennaiyin+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odisha ↓

Chennaiyin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Odisha or draw
68%
Odisha or Chennaiyin
76%
Draw or Chennaiyin
55%

Winning margin

Odisha wins by 2+
23%
Chennaiyin wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Odisha 1+ goals
82%
Odisha 2+ goals
51%
Odisha 3+ goals
24%
Chennaiyin 1+ goals
76%
Chennaiyin 2+ goals
41%
Chennaiyin 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Odisha (draw refunded)
58%
Chennaiyin (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odisha at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.56 · 68 matches

Chennaiyin away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.68 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odisha attack 1.75 + Chennaiyin defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.71

Chennaiyin attack 1.26 + Odisha defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Odisha scores more
45%
level
24%
Chennaiyin scores more
32%

Odisha at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Odisha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Indian Super League: Odisha 2–0 Chennaiyin

Odisha beat Chennaiyin 2-0 in Indian Super League on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Kalinga Stadium in Bhubaneswar.