Odense 1–1 Silkeborg: Result & Stats | Superliga

Odense

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Silkeborg

A. Gigović 61'

T. Adamsen 83'

10/9/2022

Superliga · Round 12Nature Energy Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Odense49%

×Draw23%

Silkeborg28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OdenseExpected goals in this matchSilkeborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.34

Odense

1.82

Silkeborg

1.34

Odense creates 36% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 21 away

1.79

creates per match

1.34

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Odense

1.79

Silkeborg

1.34

allows per match

Odense

1.34

Silkeborg

1.85

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

Odense-0.16scores less

Silkeborg+0.18scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odense ↓

Silkeborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Odense or draw

72%

Odense or Silkeborg

77%

Draw or Silkeborg

51%

Winning margin

Odense wins by 2+

27%

Silkeborg wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Odense 1+ goals

84%

Odense 2+ goals

54%

Odense 3+ goals

27%

Silkeborg 1+ goals

74%

Silkeborg 2+ goals

39%

Silkeborg 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Odense (draw refunded)

63%

Silkeborg (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odense at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.34 · 16 matches

Silkeborg away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.85 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odense attack 1.79 + Silkeborg defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.82

Silkeborg attack 1.34 + Odense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Odense scores more

49%

level

23%

Silkeborg scores more

28%

Odense at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Odense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

L. Engel

Silkeborg · D

7.9

Match Events

27'

Yankuba Minteh

60'

K. Kusk← S. Tengstedt

60'

O. Sonne← R. Østrøm

61'

A. Gigović↳ Y. Minteh

62'

C. Nouck← Y. Minteh

62'

J. Breum← F. Tongya

72'

S. Þórðarson← A. Klynge

72'

T. Adamsen← N. Helenius

73'

Lukas Engel

83'

T. Adamsen↳ K. Kusk

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OdenseSilkeborg

Overview

33%Possession67%

8Total Shots26

2Corners12

6Fouls6

Shots

8Total Shots26

4On Target6

2Off Target11

2Blocked9

7Inside Box14

1Outside Box12

Passing

33%Possession67%

375Total Passes745

300Accurate Passes675

80%Pass Accuracy91%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

6Fouls6

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0