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Odense vs Randers FC — Superliga 2018

Odense
Odense
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Randers FC
Randers FC
4/19/2026SuperligaSuperliga · Relegation Group - 27Nature Energy Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 116+ matches

Odense42%
×Draw25%
Randers FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odense
1.48
Randers FC
1.27

Odense creates 17% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 133 away

creates per match

Odense
1.45
Randers FC
1.24

allows per match

Odense
1.31
Randers FC
1.52

finishing

Odense+0.00on par
Randers FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odense ↓

Randers FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Odense or draw
67%
Odense or Randers FC
75%
Draw or Randers FC
58%

Winning margin

Odense wins by 2+
20%
Randers FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Odense 1+ goals
77%
Odense 2+ goals
43%
Odense 3+ goals
19%
Randers FC 1+ goals
72%
Randers FC 2+ goals
36%
Randers FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Odense (draw refunded)
56%
Randers FC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odense at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.31 · 116 matches

Randers FC away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.52 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odense attack 1.45 + Randers FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.48

Randers FC attack 1.24 + Odense defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Odense scores more
42%
level
25%
Randers FC scores more
33%

Odense at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Odense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Odense vs Randers FC

Odense beat Randers FC 3-1 in Superliga on April 19, 2026.

The match was played at Nature Energy Park in Odense.