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Odense vs Lyngby — Superliga 2018

Odense
Odense
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Lyngby
Lyngby
10/2/2023SuperligaSuperliga · Round 10Nature Energy Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Odense49%
×Draw25%
Lyngby26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odense
1.64
Lyngby
1.13

Odense creates 45% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 81 away

creates per match

Odense
1.45
Lyngby
0.95

allows per match

Odense
1.31
Lyngby
1.83

finishing

Odense+0.00on par
Lyngby+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odense ↓

Lyngby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Odense or draw
74%
Odense or Lyngby
75%
Draw or Lyngby
51%

Winning margin

Odense wins by 2+
26%
Lyngby wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Odense 1+ goals
81%
Odense 2+ goals
49%
Odense 3+ goals
23%
Lyngby 1+ goals
68%
Lyngby 2+ goals
31%
Lyngby 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Odense (draw refunded)
65%
Lyngby (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odense at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.31 · 116 matches

Lyngby away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.83 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odense attack 1.45 + Lyngby defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.64

Lyngby attack 0.95 + Odense defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Odense scores more
49%
level
25%
Lyngby scores more
26%

Odense at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Odense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Odense vs Lyngby

Lyngby beat Odense 2-1 in Superliga on October 2, 2023.

The match was played at Nature Energy Park in Odense.