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Odense vs AC Horsens — Superliga 2026

Odense
Odense
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AC Horsens
AC Horsens
E. Sabbi 74', 67' (pen)
M. Jensen 55'
5/26/2023SuperligaSuperliga · Relegation Round - 9Nature Energy Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Odense50%
×Draw25%
AC Horsens25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odense
1.61
AC Horsens
1.06

Odense creates 52% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 67 away

creates per match

Odense
1.46
AC Horsens
0.84

allows per match

Odense
1.28
AC Horsens
1.76

finishing

Odense+0.00on par
AC Horsens+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odense ↓

AC Horsens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Odense or draw
75%
Odense or AC Horsens
75%
Draw or AC Horsens
50%

Winning margin

Odense wins by 2+
26%
AC Horsens wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Odense 1+ goals
80%
Odense 2+ goals
48%
Odense 3+ goals
22%
AC Horsens 1+ goals
65%
AC Horsens 2+ goals
29%
AC Horsens 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Odense (draw refunded)
67%
AC Horsens (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odense at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.28 · 120 matches

AC Horsens away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.76 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odense attack 1.46 + AC Horsens defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.61

AC Horsens attack 0.84 + Odense defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Odense scores more
50%
level
25%
AC Horsens scores more
25%

Odense at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Odense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
E. SabbiOdenseOdense · F
8.2

Match Events

32'
C. Nouck← Y. Minteh
49'
Janus Drachmann
55'
M. Jensen↳ A. Jacobsen
62'
J. Buus← A. Sigurðarson
62'
J. Gemmer← J. Drachmann
66'
Mikkel Lassen
67'
E. SabbiPenalty
74'
E. Sabbi↳ M. Frøkjær-Jensen
75'
Emmanuel Sabbi
80'
E. Just← T. Santos
80'
J. Gomez← M. Kiilerich
86'
A. Þrándarson← J. Tverskov
87'
F. Tongya← J. Breum
90+3'
Jacob Buus

Possession

62%Odense

Shots

19Odense

Pass accuracy

56%Odense

Statistics

OdenseAC
Overview
62%Possession38%
19Total Shots10
9Corners6
4Fouls10
Shots
19Total Shots10
9On Target4
6Off Target3
4Blocked3
11Inside Box9
8Outside Box1
Passing
62%Possession38%
542Total Passes320
451Accurate Passes205
83%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
3Saves7
Discipline
4Fouls10
1Yellow Cards3

Match Recap: Odense vs AC Horsens

Odense beat AC Horsens 2-1 in Superliga on May 26, 2023.

Goals: M. Jensen (55'), E. Sabbi (67' pen, 74').

Odense controlled possession (62%) and registered 19 shots to 10.

The match was played at Nature Energy Park in Odense.