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Odense vs Aarhus — Superliga 2018

Odense
Odense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Aarhus
Aarhus
8/20/2023SuperligaSuperliga · Round 5Nature Energy Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 116+ matches

Odense38%
×Draw26%
Aarhus36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odense
1.38
Aarhus
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 116 home / 132 away

creates per match

Odense
1.45
Aarhus
1.33

allows per match

Odense
1.31
Aarhus
1.30

finishing

Odense+0.00on par
Aarhus+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odense ↓

Aarhus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Odense or draw
64%
Odense or Aarhus
74%
Draw or Aarhus
62%

Winning margin

Odense wins by 2+
18%
Aarhus wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Odense 1+ goals
75%
Odense 2+ goals
40%
Odense 3+ goals
16%
Aarhus 1+ goals
73%
Aarhus 2+ goals
38%
Aarhus 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Odense (draw refunded)
52%
Aarhus (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odense at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.31 · 116 matches

Aarhus away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.30 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odense attack 1.45 + Aarhus defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.38

Aarhus attack 1.33 + Odense defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Odense scores more
38%
level
26%
Aarhus scores more
36%

Odense at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Odense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Odense 1 – 1 Aarhus

Odense and Aarhus drew 1-1 in Superliga on August 20, 2023.

The match was played at Nature Energy Park in Odense.