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Odense Q W vs Nordsjælland W — Kvindeliga 2019

Odense Q W
Odense Q W
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Nordsjælland W
Nordsjælland W
10/19/2024KvindeligaKvindeliga · Round 10Nature Energy Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Odense Q W29%
×Draw24%
Nordsjælland W47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odense Q W
1.27
Nordsjælland W
1.67

Nordsjælland W creates 31% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 81 away

creates per match

Odense Q W
1.32
Nordsjælland W
1.31

allows per match

Odense Q W
2.03
Nordsjælland W
1.23

finishing

Odense Q W+0.00on par
Nordsjælland W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odense Q W ↓

Nordsjælland W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Odense Q W or draw
53%
Odense Q W or Nordsjælland W
76%
Draw or Nordsjælland W
71%

Winning margin

Odense Q W wins by 2+
12%
Nordsjælland W wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Odense Q W 1+ goals
72%
Odense Q W 2+ goals
36%
Odense Q W 3+ goals
14%
Nordsjælland W 1+ goals
81%
Nordsjælland W 2+ goals
50%
Nordsjælland W 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Odense Q W (draw refunded)
38%
Nordsjælland W (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odense Q W at home — creates 1.32, concedes 2.03 · 34 matches

Nordsjælland W away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.23 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odense Q W attack 1.32 + Nordsjælland W defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Nordsjælland W attack 1.31 + Odense Q W defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Odense Q W scores more
29%
level
24%
Nordsjælland W scores more
47%

Nordsjælland W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Nordsjælland W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Odense Q W vs Nordsjælland W

Nordsjælland W beat Odense Q W 2-0 in Kvindeliga on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Nature Energy Park in Odense.