Oddevold vs Vasteras SK FK — Superettan 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 37+ matches
Oddevold35%
Vasteras SK FK39%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 37 home / 90 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Oddevold ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Oddevold at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.46 · 37 matches
Vasteras SK FK away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.38 · 90 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Oddevold attack 1.27 + Vasteras SK FK defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.32
Vasteras SK FK attack 1.36 + Oddevold defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.41
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
Vasteras SK FK at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "Vasteras SK FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Oddevold substitutes
Head to Head
Falkenbergs FF
Varbergs BoIS FC
Landskrona BoISVasteras SK FKOddevold
Helsingborg
Ostersunds FK
IK brage
Kalmar FF
Sandviken
Orebro SK
Orgryte IS
GIF Sundsvall
IFK Norrkoping
United Nordic
Osters IF
Norrby IF
Ljungskile SK
Umeå FC
Utsikten
Trelleborg
IFK Varnamo
Hammarby TalangIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Oddevold host Vasteras SK FK on Monday, 26 May 2025 at 17:00. The match is part of the Superettan 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Oddevold vs Vasteras SK FK
Vasteras SK FK beat Oddevold 5-1 in Superettan on May 26, 2025.
Goals: D. Krezic (11'), A. Thongla-Iad Warneryd (28'), A. Bibout (43', 45'), J. Ring (57'), F. Nsabiyumva (62').
Vasteras SK FK controlled possession (55%) and registered 15 shots to 8.
The match was played at Rimnersvallen in Uddevalla.