Oddevold 1–0 Oskarshamns AIK: Result & Stats

Oddevold

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Oskarshamns AIK

O. Iglicar-Berntsson 74'

7/30/2022

Ettan - Södra · Södra - 15Fridhemsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Oddevold55%

×Draw24%

Oskarshamns AIK21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OddevoldExpected goals in this matchOskarshamns AIK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.96

Oddevold

1.71

Oskarshamns AIK

0.96

Oddevold creates 78% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 110 away

1.74

creates per match

1.08

0.84

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Oddevold

1.74

Oskarshamns AIK

1.08

allows per match

Oddevold

0.84

Oskarshamns AIK

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oddevold+0.00on par

Oskarshamns AIK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oddevold ↓

Oskarshamns AIK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Oddevold or draw

79%

Oddevold or Oskarshamns AIK

76%

Draw or Oskarshamns AIK

45%

Winning margin

Oddevold wins by 2+

30%

Oskarshamns AIK wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Oddevold 1+ goals

82%

Oddevold 2+ goals

51%

Oddevold 3+ goals

24%

Oskarshamns AIK 1+ goals

62%

Oskarshamns AIK 2+ goals

25%

Oskarshamns AIK 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Oddevold (draw refunded)

72%

Oskarshamns AIK (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oddevold at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.84 · 43 matches

Oskarshamns AIK away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.69 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oddevold attack 1.74 + Oskarshamns AIK defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.71

Oskarshamns AIK attack 1.08 + Oddevold defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Oddevold scores more

55%

level

24%

Oskarshamns AIK scores more

21%

Oddevold at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Oddevold will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

74'

O. Iglicar-Berntsson

76'

O. Iglicar-Berntsson

76'

Z. Tsitskishvili← A. Podrimcaku

77'

E. Niklasson← A. Stroud

82'

G. Kjellström← O. Iglicar-Berntsson

88'

E. Karlsson← M. Söderqvist

88'

H. Johansson← T. Tsetskhladze

Oddevold

Oskarshamns

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: R. Nilsson

77'▲E. Niklasson←▼A. Stroud

82'▲G. Kjellström←▼O. Iglicar-Berntsson

Oddevold substitutes

NiklassonKjellströmKarlinSundströmLundbergRundströmCarhed

Manager: E. Nouri

76'▲Z. Tsitskishvili←▼A. Podrimcaku

88'▲E. Karlsson←▼M. Söderqvist

88'▲H. Johansson←▼T. Tsetskhladze

Oskarshamns AIK substitutes

TsitskishviliKarlssonJohanssonNouriBusuladzic