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Oddevold vs Lund — Ettan - Södra 2019

Oddevold
Oddevold
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Lund
Lund
9/22/2019Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Round 24Rimnersvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Oddevold51%
×Draw24%
Lund26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oddevold
1.72
Lund
1.15

Oddevold creates 50% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 113 away

creates per match

Oddevold
1.78
Lund
1.42

allows per match

Oddevold
0.87
Lund
1.66

finishing

Oddevold+0.00on par
Lund+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oddevold ↓

Lund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Oddevold or draw
74%
Oddevold or Lund
76%
Draw or Lund
49%

Winning margin

Oddevold wins by 2+
27%
Lund wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Oddevold 1+ goals
82%
Oddevold 2+ goals
51%
Oddevold 3+ goals
25%
Lund 1+ goals
68%
Lund 2+ goals
32%
Lund 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Oddevold (draw refunded)
66%
Lund (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oddevold at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.87 · 45 matches

Lund away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.66 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oddevold attack 1.78 + Lund defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.72

Lund attack 1.42 + Oddevold defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Oddevold scores more
51%
level
24%
Lund scores more
26%

Oddevold at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Oddevold will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Södra: Oddevold 0–3 Lund

Lund beat Oddevold 3-0 in Ettan - Södra on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Rimnersvallen in Uddevalla.