Oddevold 1–1 Falkenbergs FF: Result & Stats

Oddevold

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Falkenbergs FF

4/7/2023

Ettan - Södra · Södra - 2Fridhemsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Oddevold36%

×Draw26%

Falkenbergs FF39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OddevoldExpected goals in this matchFalkenbergs FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.39

Oddevold

1.33

Falkenbergs FF

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

1.78

creates per match

1.91

0.87

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Oddevold

1.78

Falkenbergs FF

1.91

allows per match

Oddevold

0.87

Falkenbergs FF

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oddevold+0.00on par

Falkenbergs FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oddevold ↓

Falkenbergs FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Oddevold or draw

61%

Oddevold or Falkenbergs FF

74%

Draw or Falkenbergs FF

64%

Winning margin

Oddevold wins by 2+

16%

Falkenbergs FF wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Oddevold 1+ goals

74%

Oddevold 2+ goals

38%

Oddevold 3+ goals

15%

Falkenbergs FF 1+ goals

75%

Falkenbergs FF 2+ goals

40%

Falkenbergs FF 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Oddevold (draw refunded)

48%

Falkenbergs FF (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oddevold at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.87 · 45 matches

Falkenbergs FF away — creates 1.91, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oddevold attack 1.78 + Falkenbergs FF defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.33

Falkenbergs FF attack 1.91 + Oddevold defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Oddevold scores more

36%

level

26%

Falkenbergs FF scores more

39%

Falkenbergs FF at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Falkenbergs FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff