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Oddevold vs Angered BK — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

Oddevold
Oddevold
FT
0 – 2
Angered BK
Angered BK
8/28/2021Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 22Rimnersvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Oddevold63%
×Draw19%
Angered BK18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oddevold
2.45
Angered BK
1.26

Oddevold creates 94% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 27 away

creates per match

Oddevold
2.86
Angered BK
1.96

allows per match

Oddevold
0.57
Angered BK
2.04

finishing

Oddevold+0.00on par
Angered BK+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oddevold ↓

Angered BK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Oddevold or draw
82%
Oddevold or Angered BK
81%
Draw or Angered BK
37%

Winning margin

Oddevold wins by 2+
41%
Angered BK wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Oddevold 1+ goals
91%
Oddevold 2+ goals
70%
Oddevold 3+ goals
44%
Angered BK 1+ goals
72%
Angered BK 2+ goals
36%
Angered BK 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Oddevold (draw refunded)
77%
Angered BK (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oddevold at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.57 · 21 matches

Angered BK away — creates 1.96, concedes 2.04 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oddevold attack 2.86 + Angered BK defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.45

Angered BK attack 1.96 + Oddevold defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Oddevold scores more
63%
level
19%
Angered BK scores more
18%

Oddevold at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Oddevold will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oddevold vs Angered BK

Angered BK beat Oddevold 2-0 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on August 28, 2021.

The match was played at Rimnersvallen in Uddevalla.