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Odder vs Dalum — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Odder
Odder
FT
3 – 1
Dalum
Dalum
3/9/20192nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 17Kunstgræsbanen Spektrum Odder

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Odder42%
×Draw25%
Dalum33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odder
1.56
Dalum
1.36

Odder creates 15% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 22 away

creates per match

Odder
1.63
Dalum
1.23

allows per match

Odder
1.50
Dalum
1.50

finishing

Odder+0.00on par
Dalum+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odder ↓

Dalum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Odder or draw
67%
Odder or Dalum
75%
Draw or Dalum
58%

Winning margin

Odder wins by 2+
21%
Dalum wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Odder 1+ goals
79%
Odder 2+ goals
46%
Odder 3+ goals
21%
Dalum 1+ goals
74%
Dalum 2+ goals
39%
Dalum 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Odder (draw refunded)
56%
Dalum (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odder at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Dalum away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.50 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odder attack 1.63 + Dalum defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

Dalum attack 1.23 + Odder defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Odder scores more
42%
level
25%
Dalum scores more
33%

Odder at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Odder will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Odder 3–1 Dalum

Odder beat Dalum 3-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on March 9, 2019.

The match was played at Kunstgræsbanen Spektrum Odder in Odder.