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Odd W vs Molde W — 1. Division Women 2022

Odd W
Odd W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Molde W
Molde W
5/25/20251. Division Women1. Division Women · Round 8Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Odd W36%
×Draw23%
Molde W41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odd W
1.63
Molde W
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 11 away

creates per match

Odd W
1.62
Molde W
2.18

allows per match

Odd W
1.31
Molde W
1.64

finishing

Odd W+0.00on par
Molde W+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odd W ↓

Molde W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Odd W or draw
59%
Odd W or Molde W
77%
Draw or Molde W
64%

Winning margin

Odd W wins by 2+
18%
Molde W wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Odd W 1+ goals
80%
Odd W 2+ goals
48%
Odd W 3+ goals
22%
Molde W 1+ goals
83%
Molde W 2+ goals
52%
Molde W 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Odd W (draw refunded)
47%
Molde W (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odd W at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

Molde W away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odd W attack 1.62 + Molde W defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.63

Molde W attack 2.18 + Odd W defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Odd W scores more
36%
level
23%
Molde W scores more
41%

Molde W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Molde W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Odd W 1 – 1 Molde W

Odd W and Molde W drew 1-1 in 1. Division Women on May 25, 2025.

The match was played at Skagerak Arena in Skien.