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Odd U19 vs Strømsgodset U19 — Nasjonal U19 Champions League 2021

Odd U19
Odd U19
FT
3 – 1
Strømsgodset U19
Strømsgodset U19
2/25/2023Nasjonal U19 Champions LeagueNasjonal U19 Champions League · Group Stage - 2Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Odd U1961%
×Draw17%
Strømsgodset U1922%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odd U19
3.05
Strømsgodset U19
1.83

Odd U19 creates 67% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 21 away

creates per match

Odd U19
3.00
Strømsgodset U19
2.19

allows per match

Odd U19
1.47
Strømsgodset U19
3.10

finishing

Odd U19+0.00on par
Strømsgodset U19+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odd U19 ↓

Strømsgodset U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Odd U19 or draw
78%
Odd U19 or Strømsgodset U19
83%
Draw or Strømsgodset U19
39%

Winning margin

Odd U19 wins by 2+
42%
Strømsgodset U19 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Odd U19 1+ goals
95%
Odd U19 2+ goals
80%
Odd U19 3+ goals
57%
Strømsgodset U19 1+ goals
84%
Strømsgodset U19 2+ goals
54%
Strømsgodset U19 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Odd U19 (draw refunded)
74%
Strømsgodset U19 (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odd U19 at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

Strømsgodset U19 away — creates 2.19, concedes 3.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odd U19 attack 3.00 + Strømsgodset U19 defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 3.05

Strømsgodset U19 attack 2.19 + Odd U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Odd U19 scores more
61%
level
17%
Strømsgodset U19 scores more
22%

Odd U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Odd U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Odd U19 vs Strømsgodset U19

Odd U19 beat Strømsgodset U19 3-1 in Nasjonal U19 Champions League on February 25, 2023.

The match was played at Skagerak Arena in Skien.