Odd U19 1–1 Lillestrøm U19: Result & Stats

Odd U19

FT

1 – 1

Lillestrøm U19

1/28/2024

Nasjonal U19 Champions League · Group Stage - 1Treningsbanen Skien Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Odd U1954%

×Draw18%

Lillestrøm U1928%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Odd U19Expected goals in this matchLillestrøm U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.83

2.04

Odd U19

2.83

Lillestrøm U19

2.04

Odd U19 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 20 away

3.00

creates per match

2.60

1.47

allows per match

2.65

creates per match

Odd U19

3.00

Lillestrøm U19

2.60

allows per match

Odd U19

1.47

Lillestrøm U19

2.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Odd U19+0.00on par

Lillestrøm U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odd U19 ↓

Lillestrøm U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–25%

1–33%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

52%48%

Double chance

Odd U19 or draw

72%

Odd U19 or Lillestrøm U19

82%

Draw or Lillestrøm U19

46%

Winning margin

Odd U19 wins by 2+

35%

Lillestrøm U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Odd U19 1+ goals

94%

Odd U19 2+ goals

77%

Odd U19 3+ goals

53%

Lillestrøm U19 1+ goals

87%

Lillestrøm U19 2+ goals

60%

Lillestrøm U19 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Odd U19 (draw refunded)

66%

Lillestrøm U19 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odd U19 at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

Lillestrøm U19 away — creates 2.60, concedes 2.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odd U19 attack 3.00 + Lillestrøm U19 defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.83

Lillestrøm U19 attack 2.60 + Odd U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Odd U19 scores more

54%

level

18%

Lillestrøm U19 scores more

28%

Odd U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Odd U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff