Odd U19 2–3 Brann U19: Result & Stats

Odd U19

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Brann U19

10/30/2024

Nasjonal U19 Champions League · FinalNordre Åsen kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Odd U1954%

×Draw19%

Brann U1927%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Odd U19Expected goals in this matchBrann U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.67

1.90

Odd U19

2.67

Brann U19

1.90

Odd U19 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 24 away

3.00

creates per match

2.33

1.47

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Odd U19

3.00

Brann U19

2.33

allows per match

Odd U19

1.47

Brann U19

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Odd U19+0.00on par

Brann U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odd U19 ↓

Brann U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–25%

1–33%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

Odd U19 or draw

73%

Odd U19 or Brann U19

81%

Draw or Brann U19

46%

Winning margin

Odd U19 wins by 2+

35%

Brann U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Odd U19 1+ goals

93%

Odd U19 2+ goals

74%

Odd U19 3+ goals

49%

Brann U19 1+ goals

85%

Brann U19 2+ goals

56%

Brann U19 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Odd U19 (draw refunded)

66%

Brann U19 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odd U19 at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

Brann U19 away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.33 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odd U19 attack 3.00 + Brann U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.67

Brann U19 attack 2.33 + Odd U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Odd U19 scores more

54%

level

19%

Brann U19 scores more

27%

Odd U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Odd U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff