Odd II 7–0 Randesund: Result & Stats

Odd II

FT

7 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Randesund

10/22/2023

3. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 25Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Odd II60%

×Draw19%

Randesund21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Odd IIExpected goals in this matchRandesund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.49

1.43

Odd II

2.49

Randesund

1.43

Odd II creates 74% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 26 away

2.44

creates per match

0.69

2.17

allows per match

2.54

creates per match

Odd II

2.44

Randesund

0.69

allows per match

Odd II

2.17

Randesund

2.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Odd II+0.00on par

Randesund+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odd II ↓

Randesund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Odd II or draw

79%

Odd II or Randesund

81%

Draw or Randesund

40%

Winning margin

Odd II wins by 2+

39%

Randesund wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Odd II 1+ goals

92%

Odd II 2+ goals

71%

Odd II 3+ goals

45%

Randesund 1+ goals

76%

Randesund 2+ goals

42%

Randesund 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Odd II (draw refunded)

74%

Randesund (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odd II at home — creates 2.44, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

Randesund away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odd II attack 2.44 + Randesund defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.49

Randesund attack 0.69 + Odd II defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Odd II scores more

60%

level

19%

Randesund scores more

21%

Odd II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Odd II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff