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ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso — Eliteserien 2026

ODD Ballklubb
ODD Ballklubb
CANC
00:00
Tromso
Tromso
9/11/2021EliteserienEliteserien · Round 21Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

ODD Ballklubb39%
×Draw25%
Tromso36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ODD Ballklubb
1.46
Tromso
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 38 away

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb
1.30
Tromso
1.33

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb
1.49
Tromso
1.61

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.05on par
Tromso-0.01on par

Total goals

Over: 55Under: 4555%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Tromso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw
64%
ODD Ballklubb or Tromso
75%
Draw or Tromso
61%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+
18%
Tromso wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals
77%
ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals
43%
ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals
18%
Tromso 1+ goals
76%
Tromso 2+ goals
41%
Tromso 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)
51%
Tromso (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.49 · 23 matches

Tromso away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.61 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.30 + Tromso defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.46

Tromso attack 1.33 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more
39%
level
25%
Tromso scores more
36%

ODD Ballklubb at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "ODD Ballklubb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ODD Ballklubb face Tromso (Eliteserien)

Eliteserien returns with ODD Ballklubb hosting Tromso. Match starts September 11, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

ODD Ballklubb host Tromso at Skagerak Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.