ODD Ballklubb 3–0 Tromso: Result & Stats

ODD Ballklubb

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tromso

M. Bakenga 77', 32'

Joshua Gaston Kitolano 54'

6/24/2021

Eliteserien · Round 9Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

ODD Ballklubb39%

×Draw25%

Tromso36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ODD BallklubbExpected goals in this matchTromso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.41

ODD Ballklubb

1.46

Tromso

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 38 away

1.30

creates per match

1.33

1.49

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.30

Tromso

1.33

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.49

Tromso

1.61

+0.05on par

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.05on par

Tromso-0.01on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Tromso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw

64%

ODD Ballklubb or Tromso

75%

Draw or Tromso

61%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

18%

Tromso wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

77%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

43%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

18%

Tromso 1+ goals

76%

Tromso 2+ goals

41%

Tromso 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

51%

Tromso (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.49 · 23 matches

Tromso away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.61 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.30 + Tromso defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.46

Tromso attack 1.33 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more

39%

level

25%

Tromso scores more

36%

ODD Ballklubb at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "ODD Ballklubb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

M. Bakenga

ODD Ballklubb · F

8.5

Match Events

5'

Adam Örn Arnarson

32'

M. Bakenga↳ S. Svendsen

45+1'

Daniel Berntsen

46'

E. Kitolano← F. Winther

54'

Joshua Gaston Kitolano↳ K. Larsen

59'

E. Ruud← S. Owusu

72'

G. Rólantsson← M. Lekven

72'

C. Wallem← K. Larsen

72'

J. Rothmann← A. Arnarson

77'

M. Bakenga

83'

M. Andersen← D. Berntsen

84'

Mushaga Bakenga

85'

Anders Jenssen

86'

Sander Svendsen

87'

S. Aas← M. Kaasa

87'

T. Lauritsen← M. Bakenga

90+1'

J. Robertsen← A. Mikkelsen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ODDTromso

Overview

57%Possession43%

11Total Shots12

2Corners4

14Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots12

5On Target2

4Off Target8

2Blocked2

6Inside Box8

5Outside Box4

Passing

57%Possession43%

529Total Passes398

454Accurate Passes328

86%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0