ODD Ballklubb 1–0 Tromso: Result & Stats

ODD Ballklubb

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tromso

Morten Pedersen 56' (OG)

10/28/2018

Eliteserien · Round 27Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

ODD Ballklubb38%

×Draw25%

Tromso37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ODD BallklubbExpected goals in this matchTromso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.42

ODD Ballklubb

1.44

Tromso

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 42 away

1.30

creates per match

1.34

1.49

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.30

Tromso

1.34

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.49

Tromso

1.57

+0.05on par

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.05on par

Tromso+0.02on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Tromso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw

63%

ODD Ballklubb or Tromso

75%

Draw or Tromso

62%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

18%

Tromso wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

76%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

42%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

18%

Tromso 1+ goals

76%

Tromso 2+ goals

41%

Tromso 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

51%

Tromso (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.49 · 23 matches

Tromso away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.57 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.30 + Tromso defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.44

Tromso attack 1.34 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more

38%

level

25%

Tromso scores more

37%

ODD Ballklubb at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "ODD Ballklubb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

M. Broberg

ODD Ballklubb · F

7.8

Match Events

53'

Vebjørn Hoff

56'

Morten PedersenOwn goal

59'

S. Grönli← D. Berntsen

62'

T. Lauritsen← T. Børven

67'

F. Nordkvelle← A. Sødlund

70'

Martin Broberg

70'

Onni Valakari

90+2'

M. Larsen← Joshua Kitolano

90+7'

C. Landu Landu← M. Bakenga

90'

M. Pedersen← M. Andersen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ODDTromso

Overview

50%Possession50%

13Total Shots12

4Corners5

16Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots12

4On Target2

6Off Target8

3Blocked2

8Inside Box9

5Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

439Total Passes427

360Accurate Passes332

82%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

2Offsides2