ODD Ballklubb 0–1 Sandefjord: Result & Stats

ODD Ballklubb

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sandefjord

K. Boya 16'

5/25/2022

Eliteserien · Round 8Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

ODD Ballklubb41%

×Draw24%

Sandefjord35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ODD BallklubbExpected goals in this matchSandefjord

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.43

ODD Ballklubb

1.58

Sandefjord

1.43

ODD Ballklubb creates 10% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 38 away

1.30

creates per match

1.37

1.49

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.30

Sandefjord

1.37

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.49

Sandefjord

1.87

+0.05on par

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.05on par

Sandefjord+0.18scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Sandefjord →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw

65%

ODD Ballklubb or Sandefjord

76%

Draw or Sandefjord

59%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

21%

Sandefjord wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

79%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

47%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

21%

Sandefjord 1+ goals

76%

Sandefjord 2+ goals

42%

Sandefjord 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

54%

Sandefjord (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.49 · 23 matches

Sandefjord away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.87 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.30 + Sandefjord defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.58

Sandefjord attack 1.37 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more

41%

level

24%

Sandefjord scores more

35%

ODD Ballklubb at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "ODD Ballklubb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

J. Taaje

Sandefjord · D

8.0

Match Events

16'

K. Boya↳ I. Smeulers

45'

Conrad Wallem

46'

T. Lauritsen← A. Stensrud

55'

Harmeet Singh

55'

Jesper Taaje

60'

A. Ordagić← H. Singh

68'

E. Ruud← G. Rólantsson

69'

Mohamed Ofkir

73'

F. Jørgensen← S. Owusu

75'

Y. Chaib← M. Ofkir

76'

A. Sødlund← F. Nyenetue

83'

S. Aas← M. Jevtović

88'

S. Gussiås← A. Tveter

88'

L. Markmanrud← P. Slørdahl

90+1'

Sivert Gussias

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ODDSandefjord

Overview

60%Possession40%

26Total Shots6

8Corners2

3Fouls8

Shots

26Total Shots6

3On Target2

19Off Target2

4Blocked2

20Inside Box3

6Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

529Total Passes373

447Accurate Passes291

84%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

3Fouls8

1Yellow Cards4