ODD Ballklubb 3–0 Lyn: Result & Stats | 1. Division

ODD Ballklubb

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Lyn

F. Tewelde 83', 76', 13'

5/30/2026

1. Division · Round 10Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

ODD Ballklubb36%

×Draw24%

Lyn40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ODD BallklubbExpected goals in this matchLyn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.59

ODD Ballklubb

1.48

Lyn

1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 36 away

1.57

creates per match

1.75

1.43

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.57

Lyn

1.75

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.43

Lyn

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.00on par

Lyn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Lyn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw

60%

ODD Ballklubb or Lyn

76%

Draw or Lyn

64%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

17%

Lyn wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

77%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

43%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

19%

Lyn 1+ goals

80%

Lyn 2+ goals

47%

Lyn 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

47%

Lyn (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.43 · 23 matches

Lyn away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.39 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.57 + Lyn defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.48

Lyn attack 1.75 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more

36%

level

24%

Lyn scores more

40%

Lyn at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lyn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

F. Tewelde↳ S. Skjeldal

29'

S. Aas

31'

H. Hardarson← V. Rasmussen

58'

H. Hardarson

64'

K. Holte← N. Kojo

76'

F. Tewelde↳ K. Holte

79'

J. Skaug← I. Monglo

79'

E. Sawaneh← M. Johansen

83'

F. Tewelde↳ F. Jorgensen

86'

J. Gunnerod← F. Tewelde

86'

O. Skau← S. Skjeldal

ODD

Lyn

1

55

4

6

18

7

▼

22

24

9

11

10

▼

1

18

5

6

13

A

▼

Skjeldal

7

A

Jorgensen

8

Soderberg

23

▼

Kojo

10

▼

Rasmussen

9

Bojadzic

28

⚽3

▼

Tewelde

Manager: Per Frandsen

31'▲H. Hardarson←▼V. Rasmussen

64'▲K. Holte←▼N. Kojo

86'▲J. Gunnerod←▼F. Tewelde

86'▲O. Skau←▼S. Skjeldal

ODD Ballklubb substitutes

12Lysgard14Gunnerod15Skau17Ambrose20Hardarson27Holte34Essayas

Manager: Magnus Aadland

79'▲J. Skaug←▼I. Monglo

79'▲E. Sawaneh←▼M. Johansen

Lyn substitutes

25Andersen5Vik15Buet21Skaug23Sjatil26Sawaneh27Barnett30Sock