ODD Ballklubb 3–1 jerv: Result & Stats

ODD Ballklubb

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

jerv

S. Aas 77'

F. Jorgensen 75'

N. Kojo 25'

S. Osestad 40'

1/31/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Telemarkshallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

ODD Ballklubb56%

×Draw22%

jerv22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ODD BallklubbExpected goals in this matchjerv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.16

ODD Ballklubb

1.96

jerv

1.16

ODD Ballklubb creates 69% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 18 away

1.70

creates per match

1.17

1.15

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.70

jerv

1.17

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.15

jerv

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.00on par

jerv+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

jerv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw

78%

ODD Ballklubb or jerv

78%

Draw or jerv

44%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

33%

jerv wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

86%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

58%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

31%

jerv 1+ goals

69%

jerv 2+ goals

32%

jerv 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

71%

jerv (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

jerv away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.70 + jerv defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.96

jerv attack 1.17 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more

56%

level

22%

jerv scores more

22%

ODD Ballklubb at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "ODD Ballklubb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

25'

N. Kojo

40'

S. Osestad

60'

J. Tonnessen← H. Krogelien

60'

L. Markmanrud← S. Karlsen

60'

E. Duesund← I. Mafi

60'

P. Syvertsen← F. Schroter

60'

S. Alanko← J. Furaha

75'

F. Jorgensen

77'

S. Aas

ODD

jerv

1

Skiftenes

19

▼

Mafi

16

▼

Krogelien

15

Gueye

37

▼

Karlsen

6

Wichmann

21

Strangsta

40

⚽

Osestad

17

▼

Furaha

18

Richstad

50

▼

1

14

21

5

3

8

7

⚽

Jorgensen

23

⚽

27

22

24

Manager: Knut Rønningene

ODD Ballklubb substitutes

12Hansen25AmbroseAdamSkau15SolholmKrosa28Abdulateef13Rekdal16Glenna18Aas

Manager: L. Bohinen

60'▲J. Tonnessen←▼H. Krogelien

60'▲L. Markmanrud←▼S. Karlsen

60'▲E. Duesund←▼I. Mafi

60'▲P. Syvertsen←▼F. Schroter

60'▲S. Alanko←▼J. Furaha

jerv substitutes

20Ovretveit38Tonnessen5Markmanrud23Duesund32Bertelsen54Syvertsen77Alanko

Friendlies Clubs: ODD Ballklubb 3–1 jerv

ODD Ballklubb beat jerv 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 31, 2025.

Goals: N. Kojo (25'), S. Osestad (40'), F. Jorgensen (75'), S. Aas (77').

The match was played at Telemarkshallen in Bø i Telemark.

ODD Ballklubb vs jerv — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies Clubs: ODD Ballklubb 3–1 jerv