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ODD Ballklubb vs Brann — Eliteserien 2026

ODD Ballklubb
ODD Ballklubb
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Brann
Brann
11/3/2024EliteserienEliteserien · Round 27Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

ODD Ballklubb43%
×Draw24%
Brann33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ODD Ballklubb
1.64
Brann
1.39

ODD Ballklubb creates 18% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 104 away

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb
1.69
Brann
1.47

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb
1.31
Brann
1.59

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.00on par
Brann+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Brann →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw
67%
ODD Ballklubb or Brann
76%
Draw or Brann
57%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+
22%
Brann wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals
81%
ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals
49%
ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals
23%
Brann 1+ goals
75%
Brann 2+ goals
40%
Brann 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)
57%
Brann (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.31 · 96 matches

Brann away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.59 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.69 + Brann defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.64

Brann attack 1.47 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more
43%
level
24%
Brann scores more
33%

ODD Ballklubb at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "ODD Ballklubb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eliteserien: ODD Ballklubb 0–3 Brann

Brann beat ODD Ballklubb 3-0 in Eliteserien on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Skagerak Arena in Skien.