ODD Ballklubb 1–0 Brann: Result & Stats

ODD Ballklubb

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Brann

M. Kaasa 53'

7/15/2020

Eliteserien · Round 8Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

ODD Ballklubb32%

×Draw25%

Brann43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ODD BallklubbExpected goals in this matchBrann

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.57

ODD Ballklubb

1.33

Brann

1.57

Brann creates 18% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 36 away

1.30

creates per match

1.65

1.49

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.30

Brann

1.65

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.49

Brann

1.36

+0.05on par

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.05on par

Brann+0.16scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Brann →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw

57%

ODD Ballklubb or Brann

75%

Draw or Brann

68%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

14%

Brann wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

74%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

38%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

15%

Brann 1+ goals

79%

Brann 2+ goals

46%

Brann 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

43%

Brann (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.49 · 23 matches

Brann away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.36 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.30 + Brann defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Brann attack 1.65 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more

32%

level

25%

Brann scores more

43%

Brann at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Brann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

M. Kaasa

ODD Ballklubb · F

7.5

Match Events

46'

F. Haugen← T. Teniste

53'

M. Kaasa

63'

Amer Ordagić

69'

E. Hustad← G. Koomson

70'

K. Jakobsen← E. Rashani

70'

M. Kvinge← R. Taylor

75'

M. Bakenga← T. Lauritsen

75'

O. Ugwuadu← M. Kaasa

77'

Kasper Lunding

81'

T. Grøgaard← R. Kristiansen

82'

J. Tveita← P. Strand

85'

Erlend Hustad

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ODDBrann

Overview

49%Possession51%

12Total Shots5

3Corners3

13Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots5

7On Target2

3Off Target1

2Blocked2

6Inside Box2

6Outside Box3

Passing

49%Possession51%

481Total Passes492

378Accurate Passes389

79%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1