ODD Ballklubb 1–0 Asane: Result & Stats

ODD Ballklubb

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Asane

T. Borven 2'

5/31/2025

1. Division · Round 9Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

ODD Ballklubb46%

×Draw24%

Asane30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ODD BallklubbExpected goals in this matchAsane

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.35

ODD Ballklubb

1.73

Asane

1.35

ODD Ballklubb creates 28% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 113 away

1.57

creates per match

1.28

1.43

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.57

Asane

1.28

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.43

Asane

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.00on par

Asane+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Asane →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw

70%

ODD Ballklubb or Asane

76%

Draw or Asane

54%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

25%

Asane wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

82%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

52%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

25%

Asane 1+ goals

74%

Asane 2+ goals

39%

Asane 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

61%

Asane (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.43 · 23 matches

Asane away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.89 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.57 + Asane defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.73

Asane attack 1.28 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more

46%

level

24%

Asane scores more

30%

ODD Ballklubb at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "ODD Ballklubb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

T. Borven↳ E. Hussain

45+3'

51'

56'

56'

58'

58'

63'

72'

72'

R. Zekhnini← O. Hagen

84'

J. Eikrem← K. Barmen

84'

S. Haugland← S. Skalevik

88'

N. Gebrezgi← E. Myklebust

90+1'

G. Ambrose← B. Njie

ODD

Asane

99

Ree

3

Steen

22

▼

19

28

16

10

▼

Barmen

18

Kallevag

14

▼

Haga

11

▼

Skalevik

9

▼

Myklebust

1

Hansen

14

Gunnerod

15

▼

Solholm

13

Skjeldal

8

A

Hussain

6

▼

Svendsen

17

Owusu

11

▼

Hagen

22

⚽

Borven

10

▼

Njie

18

▼

Aas

Manager: Knut Rønningene

56'▲F. Jorgensen←▼S. Aas

56'▲S. Hagen←▼S. Solholm

72'▲N. Kojo←▼T. Svendsen

72'▲R. Zekhnini←▼O. Hagen

90+1'▲G. Ambrose←▼B. Njie

ODD Ballklubb substitutes

12Hansen3Baccay7Jorgensen16Glenna20Hardarson21Hagen23Kojo25Ambrose29Zekhnini

Manager: Eirik Bakke

58'▲E. Sildnes←▼D. Wolfe

58'▲S. Strand←▼K. Haga

84'▲J. Eikrem←▼K. Barmen

84'▲S. Haugland←▼S. Skalevik

88'▲N. Gebrezgi←▼E. Myklebust

Asane substitutes

12Madsen6Nilsen7Eikrem8Sildnes15Strand17Gebrezgi23Haugland