Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ocniţa vs Speranța Drochia — Cupa 2020

Ocniţa
Ocniţa
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Speranța Drochia
Speranța Drochia
9/14/2021CupaCupa · 2nd RoundStadionul Orăşenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ocniţa22%
×Draw19%
Speranța Drochia58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ocniţa
1.42
Speranța Drochia
2.37

Speranța Drochia creates 67% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Ocniţa
1.00
Speranța Drochia
2.33

allows per match

Ocniţa
2.40
Speranța Drochia
1.83

finishing

Ocniţa+0.00on par
Speranța Drochia+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ocniţa ↓

Speranța Drochia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Ocniţa or draw
42%
Ocniţa or Speranța Drochia
81%
Draw or Speranța Drochia
78%

Winning margin

Ocniţa wins by 2+
10%
Speranța Drochia wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Ocniţa 1+ goals
76%
Ocniţa 2+ goals
41%
Ocniţa 3+ goals
17%
Speranța Drochia 1+ goals
91%
Speranța Drochia 2+ goals
68%
Speranța Drochia 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Ocniţa (draw refunded)
28%
Speranța Drochia (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ocniţa at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Speranța Drochia away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ocniţa attack 1.00 + Speranța Drochia defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.42

Speranța Drochia attack 2.33 + Ocniţa defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ocniţa scores more
22%
level
19%
Speranța Drochia scores more
58%

Speranța Drochia at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Speranța Drochia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cupa: Ocniţa 0–4 Speranța Drochia

Speranța Drochia beat Ocniţa 4-0 in Cupa on September 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Orăşenesc in Edineţ.