Ocniţa 0–2 Milsami Orhei: Result & Stats | Cupa

Ocniţa

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Milsami Orhei

10/18/2022

Cupa · Round of 16Stadionul Orăşenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ocniţa27%

×Draw22%

Milsami Orhei51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OcniţaExpected goals in this matchMilsami Orhei

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.92

Ocniţa

1.33

Milsami Orhei

1.92

Milsami Orhei creates 44% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

1.00

creates per match

1.44

2.40

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Ocniţa

1.00

Milsami Orhei

1.44

allows per match

Ocniţa

2.40

Milsami Orhei

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ocniţa+0.00on par

Milsami Orhei+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ocniţa ↓

Milsami Orhei →

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Ocniţa or draw

49%

Ocniţa or Milsami Orhei

78%

Draw or Milsami Orhei

73%

Winning margin

Ocniţa wins by 2+

11%

Milsami Orhei wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Ocniţa 1+ goals

74%

Ocniţa 2+ goals

38%

Ocniţa 3+ goals

15%

Milsami Orhei 1+ goals

85%

Milsami Orhei 2+ goals

57%

Milsami Orhei 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Ocniţa (draw refunded)

34%

Milsami Orhei (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ocniţa at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Milsami Orhei away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ocniţa attack 1.00 + Milsami Orhei defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Milsami Orhei attack 1.44 + Ocniţa defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ocniţa scores more

27%

level

22%

Milsami Orhei scores more

51%

Milsami Orhei at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Milsami Orhei will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff