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Ocniţa vs Făleşti — Cupa 2020

Ocniţa
Ocniţa
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Făleşti
Făleşti
8/30/2022CupaCupa · 1st RoundStadionul Ocniţa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ocniţa24%
×Draw20%
Făleşti55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ocniţa
1.40
Făleşti
2.20

Făleşti creates 57% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Ocniţa
1.00
Făleşti
2.00

allows per match

Ocniţa
2.40
Făleşti
1.80

finishing

Ocniţa+0.00on par
Făleşti+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ocniţa ↓

Făleşti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Ocniţa or draw
45%
Ocniţa or Făleşti
80%
Draw or Făleşti
76%

Winning margin

Ocniţa wins by 2+
10%
Făleşti wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Ocniţa 1+ goals
75%
Ocniţa 2+ goals
41%
Ocniţa 3+ goals
17%
Făleşti 1+ goals
89%
Făleşti 2+ goals
64%
Făleşti 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Ocniţa (draw refunded)
30%
Făleşti (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ocniţa at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Făleşti away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ocniţa attack 1.00 + Făleşti defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

Făleşti attack 2.00 + Ocniţa defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ocniţa scores more
24%
level
20%
Făleşti scores more
55%

Făleşti at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Făleşti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cupa: Ocniţa 1–1 Făleşti

Ocniţa and Făleşti drew 1-1 in Cupa on August 30, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Ocniţa in Ocniţa.