Benfica Luanda 2–0 Nacional de Benguela

Benfica Luanda

FT

2 – 0

Nacional de Benguela

7/6/2012

Girabola · Round 16Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Benfica Luanda44%

×Draw34%

Nacional de Benguela22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Benfica LuandaExpected goals in this matchNacional de Benguela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

0.60

Benfica Luanda

1.00

Nacional de Benguela

0.60

Benfica Luanda creates 67% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

0.20

1.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Benfica Luanda

1.00

Nacional de Benguela

0.20

allows per match

Benfica Luanda

1.00

Nacional de Benguela

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benfica Luanda+0.00on par

Nacional de Benguela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under78
Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica Luanda ↓

Nacional de Benguela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–020%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

80%20%1.5

48%52%2.5

22%78%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Benfica Luanda or draw

78%

Benfica Luanda or Nacional de Benguela

66%

Draw or Nacional de Benguela

56%

Winning margin

Benfica Luanda wins by 2+

17%

Nacional de Benguela wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Benfica Luanda 1+ goals

63%

Benfica Luanda 2+ goals

26%

Benfica Luanda 3+ goals

8%

Nacional de Benguela 1+ goals

45%

Nacional de Benguela 2+ goals

12%

Nacional de Benguela 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Benfica Luanda (draw refunded)

67%

Nacional de Benguela (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

16%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica Luanda at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Nacional de Benguela away — creates 0.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica Luanda attack 1.00 + Nacional de Benguela defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Nacional de Benguela attack 0.20 + Benfica Luanda defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Benfica Luanda scores more

44%

level

34%

Nacional de Benguela scores more

22%

Benfica Luanda at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Benfica Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff