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Oborishte vs Vitosha Bistritsa — Third League - Southwest 2018

Oborishte
Oborishte
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Vitosha Bistritsa
Vitosha Bistritsa
9/17/2025Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 8Stadio Orcho voyvoda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Oborishte47%
×Draw27%
Vitosha Bistritsa26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oborishte
1.44
Vitosha Bistritsa
0.99

Oborishte creates 45% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 69 away

creates per match

Oborishte
1.70
Vitosha Bistritsa
1.13

allows per match

Oborishte
0.85
Vitosha Bistritsa
1.19

finishing

Oborishte+0.00on par
Vitosha Bistritsa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oborishte ↓

Vitosha Bistritsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Oborishte or draw
74%
Oborishte or Vitosha Bistritsa
73%
Draw or Vitosha Bistritsa
53%

Winning margin

Oborishte wins by 2+
23%
Vitosha Bistritsa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Oborishte 1+ goals
76%
Oborishte 2+ goals
42%
Oborishte 3+ goals
18%
Vitosha Bistritsa 1+ goals
63%
Vitosha Bistritsa 2+ goals
26%
Vitosha Bistritsa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Oborishte (draw refunded)
65%
Vitosha Bistritsa (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oborishte at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.85 · 131 matches

Vitosha Bistritsa away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.19 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oborishte attack 1.70 + Vitosha Bistritsa defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.44

Vitosha Bistritsa attack 1.13 + Oborishte defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Oborishte scores more
47%
level
27%
Vitosha Bistritsa scores more
26%

Oborishte at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Oborishte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Oborishte 1–1 Vitosha Bistritsa

Oborishte and Vitosha Bistritsa drew 1-1 in Third League - Southwest on September 17, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Orcho voyvoda in Panagyurishte.