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Oborishte vs Slavia Sofia II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Oborishte
Oborishte
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Slavia Sofia II
Slavia Sofia II
11/8/2025Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 16Stadio Orcho voyvoda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Oborishte55%
×Draw23%
Slavia Sofia II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oborishte
1.84
Slavia Sofia II
1.09

Oborishte creates 69% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 70 away

creates per match

Oborishte
1.70
Slavia Sofia II
1.33

allows per match

Oborishte
0.85
Slavia Sofia II
1.99

finishing

Oborishte+0.00on par
Slavia Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oborishte ↓

Slavia Sofia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Oborishte or draw
78%
Oborishte or Slavia Sofia II
77%
Draw or Slavia Sofia II
45%

Winning margin

Oborishte wins by 2+
31%
Slavia Sofia II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Oborishte 1+ goals
84%
Oborishte 2+ goals
55%
Oborishte 3+ goals
28%
Slavia Sofia II 1+ goals
66%
Slavia Sofia II 2+ goals
30%
Slavia Sofia II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Oborishte (draw refunded)
71%
Slavia Sofia II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oborishte at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.85 · 131 matches

Slavia Sofia II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.99 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oborishte attack 1.70 + Slavia Sofia II defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.84

Slavia Sofia II attack 1.33 + Oborishte defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Oborishte scores more
55%
level
23%
Slavia Sofia II scores more
22%

Oborishte at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Oborishte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oborishte vs Slavia Sofia II

Oborishte beat Slavia Sofia II 2-1 in Third League - Southwest on November 8, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Orcho voyvoda in Panagyurishte.