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Oborishte vs Rilski Sportist — Third League - Southwest 2018

Oborishte
Oborishte
FT
0 – 1
Rilski Sportist
Rilski Sportist
11/11/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 17Stadio Orcho voyvoda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Oborishte55%
×Draw24%
Rilski Sportist21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oborishte
1.71
Rilski Sportist
0.96

Oborishte creates 78% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 129 away

creates per match

Oborishte
1.70
Rilski Sportist
1.07

allows per match

Oborishte
0.85
Rilski Sportist
1.73

finishing

Oborishte+0.00on par
Rilski Sportist+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oborishte ↓

Rilski Sportist →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Oborishte or draw
79%
Oborishte or Rilski Sportist
76%
Draw or Rilski Sportist
45%

Winning margin

Oborishte wins by 2+
30%
Rilski Sportist wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Oborishte 1+ goals
82%
Oborishte 2+ goals
51%
Oborishte 3+ goals
24%
Rilski Sportist 1+ goals
62%
Rilski Sportist 2+ goals
25%
Rilski Sportist 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Oborishte (draw refunded)
72%
Rilski Sportist (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oborishte at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.85 · 131 matches

Rilski Sportist away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.73 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oborishte attack 1.70 + Rilski Sportist defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.71

Rilski Sportist attack 1.07 + Oborishte defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Oborishte scores more
55%
level
24%
Rilski Sportist scores more
21%

Oborishte at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Oborishte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oborishte 0 – 1 Rilski Sportist

Rilski Sportist beat Oborishte 1-0 in Third League - Southwest on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Orcho voyvoda in Panagyurishte.